The final countdown has begun for the political class. It took reckless acts by Musharraf and weariness with military rule to bring democracy back. There was much goodwill for it even though riding on its charger were seriously dubious characters. This was ignored because the legitimacy argument was stronger they may be crooks and criminals but they have come through the political process. Also that to let democracy take root we have to put up with the good the bad and the ugly. It was grit the teeth time.
The hope though was that lessons would have been learnt. That years of incarceration and wilderness would have taught that getting to power is difficult but using it to do good is the real challenge. This requires dedicated effort honesty of purpose and keeping the hand out of the till.
Also that people's choice as reflected in electoral mandates must be respected. Democracy is about tolerance of not only differing views and inconvenient agendas but of popular will. If an attempt is made to thwart it there will be trouble. And this is not good for either the principal actors or the script of democracy.
These were just some of the lessons and not so complicated given the march of our history. The charter of democracy signed between the two major parties in London was recognition of this the pious intent a reflection of lessons learnt. It was historic because it signalled a coming of age of the political class.
Alas it was not to be. One of its principal architects Benazir Bhutto is no longer there to midwife it through difficult times. She was an astute politician and as capable of sharp moves as any. She understood the necessity of keeping values aside to attain a political goal but she was not devoid of a moral compass. Beneath the pragmatism of a practical politician resided a genuine belief in democratic ideals.
It is difficult to say this about Mr Zardari. He will deal with the devil and say and do anything as long as he can get his way. The small matter of ideals or morality will not inconvenience him. Thus he can think nothing of signing agreements making public promises and then reneging on them. Rather than be embarrassed he will describe it as fast move that has made a fool of everyone.
It is a doctrine devoid of any moral content. Why is it that a vast majority of the people in any land are law abiding? It is not because they don't see opportunities for a fast buck in a criminal enterprise. They do but they will consider it immoral to do so. It is not just a fear of the law that keeps a majority straight. It is also an inherent sense of right and wrong.
Mr Zardari is above all this. He sees politics and perhaps life as a game without rules. For him it is the end that matters not how you get there. Hence signing documents and making public promises is no big deal. It got him the presidency. Reneging on them later is also nothing. What if he is called a villain? He got what he wanted and made a fool of everybody. Ha. Ha.
This attitude is also visible in his approach to governance. He does not care that what Musharraf did on November 3 dismissing the Supreme Court was criminal or a violation of the constitution. As far as he is concerned it got him a court of his liking. He does not care that Raza Rabbani is the most upright of men and a dedicated party person. He will nominate an interloper into the party as chairman of the Senate.
He thus will have no patience with the charter of democracy. What if there is a procedure prescribed in it for the appointment of judges to the superior courts. He will not follow it because it is an inconvenience. He wants his people in the judiciary and if this means violating a document that has been signed by his 'revered' wife so be it.
The only reason I put the word revered in commas for a person I had a deep affection for is how they are using her memory. Everything from airports to kabuki tournaments are being dedicated to her but no respect is being given to her written word. She is an icon but not an inspiration a symbol but not a guiding light. Such are the cruel tricks that fate plays.
All his clever moves notwithstanding Zardari has overreached himself with the Punjab gambit. That a respect for each other's mandate was written in the charter of democracy was of no consequence. But this is one example where adherence to principles would have avoided problems. Morality after all does have its uses.
The Sharifs are on the warpath and this is not good for Mr Zardari or the political order on top of which he sits. Why should a person who has control of all the top political offices in the country and a stamp of legitimacy to boot risk everything by reaching for the prize of Punjab. It is partly hubris a belief that I am too good and too clever for everyone and lack of any historical context. He knows not the troubles that confrontations bring.
More than that perhaps it is his belief in the reach of American power in our domestic affairs. There is little doubt that so far the Obama administration is standing firmly behind Zardari. As I said in another piece this is largely due to the skill that Hussain Haqqani has displayed in dealing with movers and shakers in Washington.
Zardari believes that American backing immunises him from any precipitate move by the army. In other words he thinks that whatever the disturbance because of the long march he can ride out the storm. Even if things go bad the army will not intervene.
This is partly true but only if the confrontation is seen only in terms of the coming battle. I don't think the army is ready or willing at this stage to intervene. But the long march is not going to be the end of the troubles. Unless some compromise is reached this conflict will go on.
There is only so much that police brutality and arrests can accomplish. This weakened state apparatus will crumble sooner rather than later. This will lead to more chaos greater anarchy. Terrorism is not going away and neither is a stagnating economy. The Taliban will sit pretty in the tribal areas posing a threat to Pakistan and the west. It is this that has prompted influential people in the US like Daniel Markey to say "there might be even worse things than military rule in Pakistan."
The first stone of a possible avalanche has been cast in the US on democratic rule in Pakistan. This makes Zardari's American pillar shaky. This is the sign that should be enough for the wise. It is still not too late to change course. But has he the foresight?