The imposition of Governor’s Rule in Punjab and the ensuing horse trading of provincial assembly members mostly from the PMLQ by both the PMLN and the PPP has clearly drawn the battle lines of the new power game in the country. It is no longer confined to the secret politics of the drawing rooms nor are the promises of reward for breaking ranks with the parent party hidden from the people civil society and the media.

This power game has been played many times before in the troubled political history of Pakistan.

And the results have been the same every time disbanding of the political process instability political chaos and violence. Will it be any different this time around?

It cannot be. But why is it that our supreme leaders in the PPP and the PMLN are so oblivious to the real danger of political intervention from a ‘third force’? Why don’t they realise that the masses are not happy with the current political situation as it has a strong bearing on their economic well being?

It is also pertinent to raise the question are the supreme leaders of the major parties interested in a genuine democratic transition or only in electoral politics to the extent it can help them acquire power?

We cannot escape these and many more questions about the personal and group interests of the contemporary Pakistani power elites if we want to understand the political chaos that has emerged within a year of elections and the removal of Pervez Musharraf.

It is necessary to clarify that power games are not the same as political competition. Political competition is fair open and within political norms and the constitution while power games have no respect for either.

Their purpose is to outclass outbalance and throw the other side out of power through whatever means are necessary and available.

Naturally a power game can be termed anything but democratic though all of its players may have been elected by their constituents.

Democracy is the most popular idea of our times and a social tool to confirm or deny legitimacy. For its efficacy the concept is open to misuse and often subjected to rhetoric and political demagoguery. Even the most fascist and ruthless rulers of the last century mostly in the Muslim developing world have sought refuge under democracy but by defining it in terms that justify their rule.

Judging by their conduct while in power and the games they have played we are quite sceptical about whether the leading lights of our political system have any interest in a genuine democratic transition because such a transition whenever and wherever it takes place eventually undermines the power of ruling classes and supreme leaders.

Naturally the democratic vision of the ruling groups of Pakistan is confined only to the electoral process and never beyond it. Electoral politics is an essential but basic means of building democracy not the end itself. The central issues of democratic transition are very different i.e. functioning of an elected government within the limits of law and the constitution being responsive to the needs of society and accountability through an independent judiciary.

Our elected leaders in the past were never willing to make such concessions and the present crop is no different. It seems they haven’t learned anything from the history of Pakistan and continue to create conditions that would wind up relatively open politics.

Often our supreme leaders who are surrounded by hordes of sycophants and intriguers have lived under the illusion that the correlation of forces favours them and not their opponents. People and street power don’t matter much to them when they have a judiciary to deliver political verdicts and major foreign powers are willing to support them for their own regional interests.

Illusions in politics are fatal as they cloud the vision of leaders.

Power without institutional restraints feeds into self delusion and the supreme leaders cultivate a wrong image of themselves and their opponents believing that they have state and party power to defeat opponents and rule as they wish.

These illusions have been proven false and self defeating several times. There is no reason to believe that political battles can be won by confrontation.

The apprehension is that those who have a stake in the present power set up are likely to lose more than those who are already out in the street demanding the restoration of pre November 3 2007 judiciary.

This is a demand that the present coalition — a mixture of diehard pro Musharraf groups and a section of the PPP faithful its co chairperson Asif Zardari — is not willing to accede to no matter what.

From the point of view of their power interests if these demands are met the ensuing structural change in the balance between institutions namely the superior judiciary and the executive will create a lot of political uncertainties for them. Even if their fears about the annulment of the NRO are formally or informally addressed the power game in the country then will be played under different rules which may not be to their liking.

The country is being pushed into a dangerous power play between the PPP led coalition with all ethnic groups in its fold and a nationwide opposition of lawyers and civil society with the Punjab based parties backing them. It is sad that the country is alarmingly polarised that there is hardly a neutral voice in the political class or any individual or group of politicians that could take the lead and diffuse the situation.

We know what happens when a country loses these independent voices and feuding politicians find no mediating political force or institution. In Pakistan’s case the military has in the past stepped in directly or mediated the political conflict.

For the people and the army there is a limit to power games and how long they can be allowed to linger.

We are not sure if the country has reached that point but the current situation cannot last very long. It would be unfortunate if the supreme leaders of both major parties refuse to listen to voices of reason and continue with their refusal to learn from their own sufferings in the past.

None of them is likely to win the power game they have entered into. But their loss ironically will be a loss of our democratic aspirations and it may take many more years for us to return to the present stage of democratic transition.

Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais is author of Recovering the Frontier State War Ethnicity and State in Afghanistan (Oxford University Press 2008) and a professor of Political Science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.